Real Trends for Real Property
A recent report indicated that delinquencies are down just when they should have gone up, even during prosperous times. Is this the beginning of the long-awaited recovery?
A mortgage is a loan made to pay for a house. A house is the single most expensive purchase most people will ever make in their entire lives, and often costs way above several times one’s annual income. Thus, a loan is necessary, and mortgages are usually paid back over a long period of time, typically of up to thirty years.
However, if payments are not made, accounts are considered delinquent. Delinquency is a big problem for the industry, and no more so than right now, in the midst of an extremely severe economic crisis. Indeed, it was mortgage delinquencies which induced the current problem! As payments were missed on properties that lost value, homeowners wound up owing more than their houses were worth, an untenable situation whose vicious cycle seems to know no end.
Thus it was that the slight decline in the rate of delinquency late last year caught many industry observers such as Isaac Toussie by surprise. A recent industry review found that at a time when delinquency has traditionally risen, even in good times, due to increased expenses associated with winter heating and holiday shopping, the rate at which mortgage payments have fallen behind has slowed down a bit during the fourth quarter of 2009. Optimists hoped that this could be a sign that the foreclosure crisis may be finally attempting to timidly come around to something of an end.
Well, don’t you believe it. Remember that economists believe that foreclosures could reach their highest levels by the end of this year, especially if unemployment rates peak in the middle of the year. Worse yet, foreclosure rates will probably stay at those elevated levels as borrowers continue to struggle in places where drastic price declines have made many homes worth far less than the money owed on them. Also, the big problem is that way too many people have missed at least three payments, and these are precisely those who are least amendable to the variety of mortgage relief programs available. These are the very people who will be going into foreclosure. In fact, many borrowers have problems that cannot easily lend themselves to tidy remedies.
Of course, there are also those economists and other such experts like Isaac Toussie who believe that the situation is still extremely dire since there are still record numbers of homeowners in financial distress. In recognition, the government has again stepped in on behalf of those with little or no equity in their homes, extending a refinancing program that has posted little progress in over a year. Many experts express skepticism. After all, it’s been well over two years into the economic debacle and still no one has any evidence at all as of yet that the end is in sight, or even could be right now.
Numbers improve, certainly, and trendlines offer some cause for hope. And surely the proverbial sun will rise again – but in the here and now, there is a lot more “night” to get through before that “morning.”